Live since World Cup 2026 · self-updating daily
Calibrated football probabilities,
with the receipts published.
An ensemble of Elo ratings and a Dixon-Coles goals model, scored on every prediction it makes. Its prediction error sits within a fraction of a percent of the bookmakers' closing line — and the same backtests prove it doesn't beat it. That honesty is the product: well-calibrated probabilities you can verify, not picks that promise profit.
World Cup 2026, live
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matches scored walk-forward
Winner picked
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Prediction error, live
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Brier score: 0 = perfect, 0.2222 = pure guessing
Club season log
starts Aug
5 leagues, predicted before kickoff
Does a stated 60% happen 60% of the time?
Reliability curve, 2025-26 walk-forward backtest (… matches) — each match predicted blind from ratings that exclude it.
Against the hardest benchmark there is
Prediction error (Brier score — how far stated probabilities land from what actually happened; lower is better) vs the bookmakers' closing line on the same matches, 2025-26. The market stays slightly sharper, and this chart shows by exactly how much.
The prediction log — every match scored, misses included
live recordWorld Cup 2026, complete. Every probability came from ratings that had not seen that match, and those ratings only moved once the row was scored — nothing here is fitted to its own result. The rows were written when the result was ingested rather than before kickoff, which the log now records honestly. Club fixtures from 2026-27 are predicted in advance and filled in after, so those cannot be revised at all.
| date | match | result | p(H/D/A) stated | picked | error (brier) |
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What this is not
Not a tipster and not a money-printer. The backtests on this page show the closing line is sharper than the model — that is exactly why they are published. Informational only; nothing here is betting advice.
Ask the model
Type a question in plain English — get the model's numbers and its read
My bet log
Track your own bets and real ROI — saved in your browser, never uploaded
Fixtures & probabilities
Upcoming matches with model probabilities and derived markets
Match analyzer
Full ensemble + AI write-up for any fixture